New Website

Readers to make note that new updates will now be posted at renkotraders.com

It is a lot easier for me to update on the new website as well as build a complete resource to trading with Renko charts.

AUDUSD is going down

• Sell AUDUSD targeting 0.9115
• Sell the rallies with a pending sell order at 0.924
• Break even with some extra pips on price reaching 0.9115
• Final target of 0.904

EURUSD - Buy

Follow up to an old analysis here.

Buy EURUSD, targeting 1.3526 and sell from 1.3526

NZDUSD - Down to 0.8373

Short to 8373 and go long from 835.. Continuation of the trade posted few weeks ago here.

AUDJPY - Sell

Sell AUDJPY, targeting 93.85, with stops at 95.85. RR isn't that great, but this should be smooth sailing. Look for longs from 93.85 targeting 96.875

Updates on trades taken in July

GBPJPY Long: Trade in play.

GBPJPY Short: Trade in play. Price currently at 172.501, and looks all set to hit 172.288 target level, moving stops to BE. New long positions from here will add more strength to the previous long trade idea posted.

NZDUSD Short: Trade closed. Entry was at 0.8698 with a profit of 208 Pips and this was a few hours before the RBNZ interest rate hike release.

NZDUSD - Short Trade Result

There was also a short on NZDJPY targeting 86.9 selling at 88.4, this gave a very decent 1.5 Pips (or about 150 pips).

EURCAD Short: Trade waiting to be triggered.

EURUSD: Price has started its rally so waiting for the short orders to be triggered.

GBPAUD: Trade is continuing to play out. Will make a fresh update on this.

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Warning from Japan!! Nikkei and the Yen

The Japan 225 Nikkei Index is setting itself up for a nice and juicy drop to 15165 level. It is currently trading at 15563 and rising. Traders would know that the Nikkei and Yen are inversely correlated. So when the Nikkei falls, the Yen rises and vice versa. This drop in Nikkei adds validation to GBPJPY short positions (short term trade) and also a potential drop in CADJPY. All in all, beware of shorting the Yen.

As with Renko its hard to say when, but I reckon that the change of mood in the markets is around the corner. If not next week, then possibly by mid-August.

For the Nikkei, expect the first target to the downside at 15415 and 15165 levels and then a bit lower.

EURCAD Renko Analysis - Long term short position

Pending Sell order at 1.448, targeting 1.1.373 with stops at 1.473.

Risk: 250 pips
Profits: 750 pips

Trade could possibly play out until end of the year

EURUSD - Potential Short Position

EURUSD, Renko charts show a possible downtrend in play, with the likelihood of a retracement, giving traders the chance to sell the rallies. There seems to be a good price level of 1.3526 and 1.3576 to short from, targeting 1.3376 with stops for both orders coming in at 1.3676.

The chart below shows the trade set up for EURUSD Renko charts.

EURUSD - Renko Charts Analysis, 25/07

The same chart when viewed with the regular candlesticks is shown below.

EURUSD - Daily Charts, Candlesticks

Notice how price is trading below the 200EMA. Stochastics are in oversold levels, pointing to a possible correction to the upside. The trend line has been broken and there was a clear re-test of the broken trend line as well, confirming the bias to the downside.

German DAX - Long Position

Buy from 9674, with stops at 9634, targeting 9854
Risk: 40
Profit: 180
4.5 RR

GBPJPY - Short Term high probability trade

Short GBPJPY at market, targeting 172.288. Add a new long position at the target, to exit at 174.788. This is in addition to my previous GBPJPY trade posted here.

In other news, NZDUSD moved like a stallion as expected. 0.858 isn't too far away. There was also a good shorting opportunity on NZDJPY, targeting 86.9. But it would be a bit too late to sell now, unless there is a significant pullback.

Sorry no charts on these posts.

NZDUSD Before RBNZ news

Massive divergence.... Targeting 858 and 849....

Its 22:30 where i am, so posting this from my ipad. Will update with charts tomorrow.

GBPJPY Long. Trade of the month

I'd put this GBPJPY trade into my 'trade of the month' category. With price breaking out of an ascending triangle and currently retracing the breakout level of 172.788, the upside target is 180.788.

GBPJPY - Renko Trade Idea

The stops for this long position comes in at 170.288. Mind you, this trade will take months to be cleared, so unless you have patience, do not even think about this trade. Its one of those 'set it and forget it' trade ideas.

Update on trades in June

EURCAD: Original post here recommending short positions at 1.4964 and 1.50405 targeting 1.45809.

EURCAD - Trade Result

Conclusion: Price reached the target in a continued down trend. (383.1 Pips + Positive Overnight swaps)

USDJPY: Original post here, recommending a short position based on a Head&Shoulders pattern.

USDJPY - Trade Result (In Play)

Conclusion: First short level was not reached at 103.050. Second short trade is in play from 101.745, targeting 100.005.

AUDJPY: Retracement failed. But we'll keep the idea open for a while.

AUDJPY - Trade Failed to trigger

CADJPY: This trade idea was originally posted in May with an entry price of 93.808 and the target revised to 95.6 in the follow up idea in June.

CADJPY - Trade Result

Conclusion: Price hit the target as expected. (1.792 Pips + Positive Overnight swaps)

GBPAUD: This trade has been in play since May. A short position was recommended at 1.82005, targeting a revised target of 1.7642. Price is currently at 1.80379 and move position to break even, making this risk free + positive overnight swaps being collected.

GBPAUD - Trade in play

Conclusion: Trade is in play with stops at Break even. Profit potential 558.5 pips

Want to learn how to trade with Renko Charts? Click here to learn more!

Renko Trading Tricks - Making money from few pips

In most of my past articles, I've often used chart patterns with their respective targets. These are usually quite wide and far and sometimes carry the risk of failing to meet the target mid-way.

A different way to trade Renko charts is to exploit the small but certain moves that crop up every now and then on the charts.

Below is the GBPJPY chart. You might recollect the original trade idea here.

GBPJPY - Exploiting Renko Charts

What's unique in this chart, is the break out of the minor ascending triangle, denoted by the brown colored measured levels. While the smaller triangle gives a target to 176.288, before this target is achieved we see a possible resistance at 174.288. Taking a moderately heavy long position targeting this sure level would give some nice fat pips in your pocket.

While trading with the bigger view in mind, a new position exploiting this move would give a good number of pips every now and then.

Update (23/07): And here is how price played out

Result

Importance of multiple confirmations with Renko

This is a great example I came across which shows the importance of using additional confirmations when trading with Renko. Because everything is not as it seems to be.

The chart below is that of EURGBP 10Pip fixed renko.

EURGBP - Renko Example

First, we see a double bottom formation that took quite a while to form, which gives it some weight. This DB's target was to 084741. But price ran up and reversed near 0.83941, which was just a few pips below 150% or half way of the trade.

Maybe an alarm bell should have rang when a lower high was made 0.83841. So perhaps profits could have been booked near the previous low of 0.83541.

Anyways, moving forward, after the failure we now see a broadening triangle pattern being formed. But how do we know its going to hold?

There have been multiple confirmation validating the move to the downside.

First comes the support turned resistance at 0.82841. It also marks the 50% level of the triangle. But that wouldn't have been a signal to short as price didn't break the main support at 0.81741.

Subsequently, another small reversal or lower high was made just below 0.82491 and finally the main support was broken.

Then, we got a confirmation with the support turning resistance at 0.81741. This would be where we would put a pending sell near the reversal low of 0.81441 with stops one or one and half brick above the level of 0.81741 targeting 150% and 200% of the move.

When another small reversal took place near 81241, a break of the reversal low would indicate to move stops to lock in profits as price nears the 150% level.

So what next?

We see a reversal taking place just 10 - 20 pips away from profit. Ideally, this is not a good price level to short from. But existing traders could now move their stops to a better level, maybe one and half bricks above 0.80641 and wait for the final target to be hit.

EURCAD Renko Analysis - Short

EURCAD Renko Chart, Head & Shoulders Pattern

A minor head and shoulders was formed with a retracement from 150% now taking place. There are two possible entries.

• Entry #1 at 1.4964, which marks the support/resistance level previously
• Entry #2 at 1.50405 which is exactly the distance between 200% and 100% (So it should form 2 retracement bricks).

Stops would come in at 1.51937

P.S: That EURAUD short decision to take profit at H&S target was sweet. Price kissed the level and retraced quite strongly.

EURUSD Renko Analysis - Alternate View (Double Bottom Scenario)

Not much of time to publish charts, but from the previous post here, an alternative view would be that of a break of the second ascending triangle. If 1.3526 gives way, the next support comes in at 1.3376.

This sets the tone for a double bottom (if it holds) which gives further upside target to 1.44/1.45

For now, watching!!!

EURAUD: Moving targets to the H&S level at 1.458 if there is a bullish retracement to the downtrend after a tap of this level.

USDJPY Renko Head and Shoulders(ish....)

USDJPY - Head & Shoulders Forming

The left shoulder and head has been formed and price looks steady to form the right shoulder. Ideally a bullish brick at 103.050 will make is ideal to trade the following ways:

1. Short from 103.050, stops at 103.485 and targeting 100.005
2. Short from 101.745, stops at 103.050 and targeting 100.005

The risk/reward varies for both, but ideally, i'd start with a smaller position at the top and build into the trade accordingly.

Bear in mind that this trade set up is valid only when a bullish renko is printed closing at 103.050

AUDJPY Renko Analysis - Inverted H&S

AUDJPY - Head & Shoulders

The neckline comes in at 93.518 which could make it an ideal level to go long from. But the risk comes from the minor retracement of 2 bearish bricks. So an alternative trade would be to pending buy from 96.046 which makes it less attractive.

But if you compare the bricks (4 bricks from 96.406) to target of 98.574, the retracement should ideally stop at 93.518, which makes it 4 bricks down (3 down + 1 reversal).

All in all, this looks like a very neat trade set up.

Natural Gas - June Update

This is an update to my previous post here.

Natural Gas June Update

Price is currently trading at 4.6 after hitting resistance at 4.82. We see a small correction which should be completed soon. During the correction, the retracement reversed at 4.465 which is a minor resistance turned support level. For now, the short term targets come in at 51.190.

GBPJPY - Inverse H&S with Asccending Triangle

In this chart, the inverse head and shoulders hints to a continuation pattern combined along with an ascending triangle just to the right shoulder.

GBPJPY - Inverse H&S + Ascending Triangle

From the chart, with the ascending triangle, the target comes in at 175.368 with stops at 168.94 followed by the larger H&S target of 179.45.

A pending buy order at 172.1 or 171.288 could be ideal.

EURUSD... ECB has to fight a bullish Euro

The EURUSD Renko chart here paints the picture. Lot of things on chart, so let me explain.

EURUSD - Bigger Picture

First there was an ascending triangle (marked in pink) which had a target to 1.3926 which was duly achieved.

Within the journey of this ascending triangle, there was a secondary ascending triangle formed (marked in Black) which targets 1.4176.

However, after hitting the first ascending triangle's target, price formed a small double top at 1.3926 giving a downside target to 1.3526. The neckline of this double top comes at 1.3726.

Possible Scenarios:

• With tomorrow's ECB, we could expect a straight drop to 1.3562
• A retracement to the neckline at 1.3726 is possible, but weak because 1.3651 or 1.3676 could come in as resistance (150% distance of first ascending triangle)
• If a bullish renko is formed at that level, then a short after a bearish renko being printed can see price travel down to the final target of 1.3526.

Once the base is formed at 1.3526, we could see a resurgent rally and validates the secondary ascending triangle (marked by the rising black trendline). But for a safe entry for this kind of set up, we will have to wait for a breakout above 1.3776.

Overall, the bigger target for EURUSD comes in at 1.4176 and within the larger scope of things, EURUSD is quite bullish.

Edit:

The risk to EURUSD is that if the Double top does reach the target, there isn't any considerable bias that support will be found with the only exception of a reversal taking place previously.

Therefore, long positions would be better off either to wait for a break of 1.3776 or wait for price to rally above 1.3726 in order to confirm the support level at 1.3526

NZDUSD - Shaping up for a bigger break out??

NZDUSD has been mostly ranging on the Renko chart but seems to have recently broken out of it. Price looks to be retracing to find support at the breakout of 0.8364.

NZDUSD - Renko

While its hard to explain the levels, a buy order at 0.83334 with stops at 0.80765 targeting 0.9336 should be a good trade with +ve swaps along the way. It might take a very long time... perhaps Q3 of 2014 for this trade to be done with, so patience is essential.

GBPAUD - Head & Shoulders Follow Up

From the previous post, we find a strong resistance at 1.8182 with a small double top formation set in place followed by a bearish renko block opening. Therefore, we can assume that the retracement is complete, which coincides with the neckline (left side).

GBPAUD - Renko, Head & Shoulders Continuation

There are a couple of price levels to bear in mind.

• The H&S target comes to 1.7642, which makes it the first target.
• The retracement which we saw from 1.775 gives a further downside target to 1.7462 if 1.775 is broken and confirmed with a bearish renko block printed.

For now, continue to hold on to the shorts.

CADJPY - Follow up to Long trade

This is a continuation of my previous post here.

After a few hiccups, price seems to be slowly treading along to the upside. The target is towards 95.536, which seems to be a very deep correction to the actual downtrend. Nothing much has changed to the analysis, I just added the Median Line to gain perspective.

CADJPY - Renko Chart, Long Position

An alternate view from ATR's Renko settings shows a double bottom that was just broken upwards, targeting 95.6.

Bullish CADJPY, Alternate View

EURAUD - Head & Shoulders in Play

Continuation through to H&S target of 1.458. The minor retracement gives a further downside target to 1.44 (rounded off)

EURAUD - Renko Charts, Head & Shoulders

Edit:

What seems to be a double bottom could pose some risks. If the double bottom is true, then we could see price rally up to 1.52165 (one brick above the neckline of the H&S) before dropping further.

EURAUD - Double Bottom Risk

So for existing short positions from the neckline, it would be ideal to move stops down to 1.495 (with the risk of giving away some pips but giving enough room to the downside).

New short positions could see their stops coming in at 1.495 and perhaps scale out if a bullish renko is posted closing at 1.4765.

CADJPY - Buying the ascending Triangle

I hope... and I hope this will be a quick trade. A nice ascending triangle was formed on CADJPY renko and the resistance was broken, tested and this pair looks ripe heading towards 95.536.

CADJPY - Renko, Ascending Triangle

USDCAD - The way I see it

USDCAD - Renko Chart Analysis

Combining Renko and Candlestick charts

Renko charts are great in terms of understanding what price is doing minus all the price spikes or wicks we get to see in Candlestick charts. However, a confluence between Renko and Candlestick charts can be a great way to gain confidence in a trade.

In this article, I present the USDJPY trade idea which combines renko and candlestick charting. Readers might know about a bearish call made on USDJPY here. Nothing has been changed on the analysis.

USDJPY - Renko Charts - Bearish Flag

To summarize:

• A major triangle was formed, which gives a target to the upside breakout at 106.864
• Price rallied 3/4ths only to reverse and start making lower highs (figuratively) and higher lows, indicating consolidation taking place
• During the process a bearish flag was formed, where the high of the flag managed to kiss 61.8% of the most recent leg to the downside.
• The bearish flag gives a target to 98.303
• I suspect a retracement to 38.2% at 102.657 before price drops lower.

Now switching to the candlestick charts and measuring the previous leg up with Fibs gives us the respective fib levels.

USDJPY - Candlestick Charts

• On the candlestick charts, we notice a triangle pattern set in place
• When measuring the previous leg up, we see a retracement to 50%
• We also notice what seems like a head and shoulders pattern being formed. If this holds, it gives us a downside target to 99.108

What to look for:

• Price shouldn't head to 102.657 and should reverse and move into the median line.
• In such an event, we can short USDJPY at 101.635 with stops at 102.657
• Trades could be moved to break even at 100.965 and book partial profits at 100.23 and 99.1 and finally 98.3 with stops moved to 100.23 to make the third trade risk free.

Trading made simple with Renko Charts (G-X Norway ETF Example)

Thought of making a post every now and then which shows how simple and stress free it is trading with Renko Charts.

Here's the G-X Norway ETF

Renko Charts - Price Action Case Study

I know in hindsight things look easy, but let's ignore the entire leg of the renko brings and focus on leg 1.

We see a strong trending market and then a series of down (red) reko bars. Plotting using the Fib tool, we get 14.25 as 38.2% retracement level. The first retracement fails to retrace to 38.2% and rallies, only to make a lower high, indicative of a losing momentum. This would have been the first signal. After a small pullback to the decline, we see a continued downtrend... and where does price retrace to?? Voila 38.2% of the leg 1 at 14.25.

Price then rallies until it makes a lower high. So we plot the next leg with Fib. The retracement here was quick and swift, with price reversing bang at 61.8% Fib, 15.26. Further confluence comes from the trendline holding.

Sure, between 14.25 and the drop to 15.26, it would have been just a 7% growth compared to the peak of 18%. However, with a bit of patience and objectivity, a trader could have purchased again at 15.26 thus increasing their equity even more.

Goes to show how simple it is to trade with Renko charts.

Interested to learn more about Renko? Click here.

EURNZD - Waiting for the retracement

Today's RBNZ Wheeler expressed concerns of the appreciating Kiwi Dollar. Against most of the pairs, the NZD has been weakening. The EURNZD offers a good trade, besides the fact that EURNZD shorts also attract positive overnight swaps.

The chart below depicts the trade idea. It might seem a bit confusing but its quite simple. Just follow the explanations based on the markers.

EURNZD - Renko Chart, Trade Idea

1. A triangle pattern is formed which was validated by a downside break out. The triangle gives a target to 1.5229. The break out failure is to be seen as a retracement that usually happens to all break outs.

2. I plotted a mini AML and the retracement looks to end at 1.6278. Typically prices tend to deviate after hitting the median line (and not to forget that prices hit the median line 80% of the time).

The level of 1.6278 sits right between the 50 - 38.2% retracements of the major leg down and the minor leg down. This gives us a reversal range between 1.6488 & 1.62324 and 1.6278 sits right in between these two levels, which if you look to the left has formed interim support during past rally and looks set to act as resistance to this short term rally.

3. The very light AML gives the long term picture. Price failed to reach the median line indicating a change of trend.

Putting it together, we can take a short positioon at 1.6278 targeting 1.5229. For stops, above the break of the trendline from the major AML at 1.6698 gives a total RR trade of 2.5, with the potential to make 350 Pips.

USDJPY - Bearish Flag on Renko

USDJPY - Bearish Flag

Looking to sell USDJPY on retest of the bearish flag, targeting 98.3

GBPAUD - Head and Shoulders, Renko Chart

This should be a nice trade to take on with a good RR as price retraced back to the H&S neckline. Target is set to 1.75 and stops at either of the shoulder's highs.

GBPAUD - Renko Charts, head and Shoulders

Update on trades taken in April

Sugar Futures: Past analysis here. Adding a pending sell order just below 16.76 and moving all trades to BE at 15.50

Sugar Futures - Renko Chart, 03/05

AMD: Past analysis here. Still waiting for price to break out of the triangle.

AMD - Renko Chart, 03/05

Coca-Cola: Past analysis here/ Cover longs to break even on a new green renko brick closing above 41.02. Target can be either a nice number of 45.5 or 45.6.

Coca Cola - Renko Chart, 03/05

CVX: Past analysis here. Revising target from 138.5 to 130.2. Moving all long positions to break even + a few more points.

CVX - Renko Chart, 03/05

MAC: Past analysis here. Price managed to rally quite a bit but currently sits in at the expected resistance level 65.63. Expect a few retracements to this rally. Target is revised to 74.62. If retracement holds, then upon a bullish brick being printed post retracement, add to positions.

Macerich - Renko Chart, 03/05

SPLS: Past analysis here. Nothing much has changed ever since. Price has managed to move just a little bit higher. So still waiting for price to reach 14.39. Although I wouldn't be surprised to see a reversal near the region of 13.

And all the ideas posted using Elliott Waves.... not bothering to update them. Consider them invalidated.

EURUSD - Hitching a ride

In the previous article, I mentioned about EURUSD targeting 1.40. In this analysis, we'll see how we could hitch a ride on this short journey.

Keeping the analysis as is and taking cues from the triangle break out, we notice a bit of retracement taking place. The most likely dip could terminate near 1.3776, which incidentally was a past resistance level. This was tested just once more recently and is likely to be tested again, thus providing a good entry.

EURUSD - Renko Charts, Trade Plan

The validation for longs also comes from the trendline confluence with 1.3776 level. So the stops would come in at one and half bricks below at 1.3651. The target of course would be 1.40 and 1.4082.

So taking two positions with the first one closing at 1.4 and the second position moved to BE and targeting 1.4082 from 1.3776 should play out fairly well.

Sugar Futures - Adding to shorts

There seems to be a bit of bullish sentiment prevailing in the markets in regards to sugar, largely attributed to a weaker than expected output from Brazil. More here. Previous analysis calling for $15 here.

Regardless of this bullish development, I still think that Sugar is poised to drop lower. So I have a new pending order at 16.77, targeting 15.10 (rounded off).

Sugar Futures Update, 24/04/14

AMD - Symmetrical Triangle Break out Renko

AMD - Renko Charts 22/04/14

Came across this pattern with the Marketinout stock screener.

Duke Energy (DUK) - Renko Alert

Duke Energy - Renko Symmetrical Triangle Breakout

Came across this pattern with the Marketinout stock screener.

EURUSD - Its not over until the fat lady sings

And regardless of what other's say, don't expect to short Euro anytime soon... unless of course 1.395 is taken out. And a bit above that as well. The EURUSD renko chart shows a simplistic view of the price action. A descending triangle breakout gives us a target towards 1.4 region. I've taken a more conservative view by target of 1.395. The chart also shows how easy it would have been to take long positions at 1.3376 regions. Sure back then it would have been a bit silly to expect EURUSD to hit 1.39... but price action has unfolded something totally different.

EURUSD - Renko Charts, Long Term

We could expect price to hover around 1.406 levels before any short positions can even be imagined.

Standard Parking Corp (STAN) - A stock worth keeping an eye on

I stumbled upon STAN (Standard Parking Corp) while doing some random look up on stocks. What's interesting to note is that this stock just broke out of a very long term basing pattern, ranging between 23.28 - 14. After price broke out, we are currently seeing a retest of 23.28, which should be a good place to buy STAN when it retests the upper range.

(STAN) - Renko Charts

Alternatively, if price fails to come back to 23.28, look to buy on dips. Also, place another buy order at 22.7/.76

This stock is a very.. and I mean very long term Buy and Hold. So pick decent units and dispose bits and pieces around 25, 30, 35 and 40.

AUDCHF - Trade Follow Up

This post is a follow up to the previous chart I posted about a potential trade opportunity that is arising out of AUDCHF. The reason for following up on this trade is because i'm currently short targeting the neckline of 0.81114. At the same time, I have pending orders, one at 0.81114 and the other at 0.80875 (which is the monthly pivot level).

I expect price to retest the neckline before reaching out to its Inverted H&S target at 0.84454. The chart below is updated and i've kept it quite simple. Nothing much has changed since the chart posted in the previous article.

AUDCHF - Renko Charts, Updated 19/04

The next chart is the same view but using the traditional candlesticks, to gain an idea of the price action. While the chart might look cluttered, i'ts very simple. We identify the inverted head and shoulders and we also notice the support/resistance areas on the chart.

AUDCHF - Price Action, 19/04

I would be eager to trade the leg up as AUDCHF longs have positive swaps along the way.

Some key notes to remember. Australia quarterly inflation is due on Wednesday, with an expectation of 0.8%, unchanged from the previous quarter. A reading below expectations could push Aussie pairs lower. However, i'd be keen to see how this will play out.

In case the inflation reading beats estimates then the trade idea could be invalidated. So instead of a retest of the neckline, price could just reverse and zoom out to its target. If inflation comes in line with expectations then I don't see any big moves playing out. Also note that China's HSBC Manufacturing PMI is due out 15 minutes after Aussie Inflation data which is an additional risk on the trade.

China's manufacturing PMI has been on the decline. A good example is the Jan 23rd PMI reading which was at its worst at 49.6 from an expected 50.6 and down from previous month's 50.5. AUDCHF dropped like a rock. However later data seem to have been well digested by the pair. So it will be interesting to see how the PMI reading will influence the AUDCHF pair.

Besides the above events on Wednesday, there is no more Aussie data left, which brings us to the month of May. The first week's big fundamental releases are likely to be the key drivers for AUDCHF. So I expect AUDCHF to complete its leg down by end of April and things should pick up by early May, especially from around the US NFP release.

Natural Gas - Trade Follow Up

Following up to the trade idea posted for Natural Gas here, today's DoE NG inventories came out smaller than expected in regards to the stockpiles. NG futures, initially dropped during the day and especially ahead of the report, only to surge more than 3%. If you recollect, a trade call was made to BUY Natural Gas. Also, I mentioned the resistance of 4.7, which is where price is at currently.

Expect a bit more choppy trade before NG futures price continue to surge higher. Traditionally, summer months (at least in Europe) are a time to stockpile on Natural Gas. However, the ongoing geo-political tensions between Ukraine and Russia could play spoil sport at least for the EU, which in turn could put pressure on global prices (read as US).

All said and done, it will only be a matter of time before Natural Gas trades in the upwards of $5 and more. Thus, if you have bought Natural Gas at around $4... hold!!

Sugar Futures - Heading back to $15

Sugar Futures - Renko Analysis

A perfect confluence of Elliott Waves, Median lines gives a target of $15.09 for sugar futures

AUDCHF - Trade Plan

Notes on chart.

To mention again:

• Pair is in a downtrend, but the occurrence of an inverted head and shoulders pattern could see a change of trend.
• A second bearish flag is currently drawn. Its not valid but if it holds price, then we can resume the downtrend.
• If price breaks out of the second assumed bearish flag, then the inverted head&shoulders would indeed validate a change of trend to bullish.

AUDCHF - Trade Plan, Renko Charts

Crude Oil paints a scary scenario

It wasn't long ago that media and the analysts spoke of $100 a barrel as a thing of the past. The crude oil renko chart paints a scary picture. Of course, given that renko is not time based, the target price of... hold your breathe 139.6

Crude Oil - Long Term Chart Pattern

What we have here is a classic rising or ascending triangle. Static/horizontal resistance at 109.19/110 and a rising support level. However to validate this trade, we'll need to see a break and possibly a retest of 110 before we can assume anything.

To make the analysis fair, the first minor upside risk comes in at 103.96. A break of this level could see some choppy price movements with bias both to the upside as well as downside.

That said, any bearish moves or correction to this uptrend should ideally be capped not any lower than 98.34. A break of this level could invalidate the long (and scary scenario) and we will have to revisit this trade analysis.

Also risks to the upside remain at 110 as we see a double top formation. A break below 78.57 gives a target of $47.40.

Yes, this chart gives some way off prices for Crude Oil, but its worth bearing this in mind.

P.S: I do envisage a test to 106.74 and a decline back to 98.34.

Citigroup - SELL

EPS might have beaten expectations, but if i'm right in understanding 'the pattern' that formed on the charts, then SELL SELL SELL and HOLD Citigroup. Stops at 52.... Sell at Market.. Look for atleast a 1:3 RR. Close first position at 1:3, and let the second position roll!

NZDCHF - Long Term Trade Plan

This trade plan, if it works out, could prove to be a very rewarding, but a lot of patience is required. Trade (longs) is based on a bullish fundamentals of NZDCHF. The long term targets are provided, with an eye on developing PA in the short term (within the current box highlighted).

Keep an eye out on 0.7625 for a trigger. Notes explained on chart.

NZDCHF - Long Term Trade Plan

GBPJPY - Trade Idea, 14/04

Pound Yen seems to be at a cross-roads with no clear direction at the moment. The chart with notes present a short and long opportunity. Patience is key!!

GBPJPY - Trade Idea, 14/04