Sugar Futures - Adding to shorts

There seems to be a bit of bullish sentiment prevailing in the markets in regards to sugar, largely attributed to a weaker than expected output from Brazil. More here. Previous analysis calling for $15 here.

Regardless of this bullish development, I still think that Sugar is poised to drop lower. So I have a new pending order at 16.77, targeting 15.10 (rounded off).

Sugar Futures Update, 24/04/14

AMD - Symmetrical Triangle Break out Renko

AMD - Renko Charts 22/04/14

Came across this pattern with the Marketinout stock screener.

Duke Energy (DUK) - Renko Alert

Duke Energy - Renko Symmetrical Triangle Breakout

Came across this pattern with the Marketinout stock screener.

EURUSD - Its not over until the fat lady sings

And regardless of what other's say, don't expect to short Euro anytime soon... unless of course 1.395 is taken out. And a bit above that as well. The EURUSD renko chart shows a simplistic view of the price action. A descending triangle breakout gives us a target towards 1.4 region. I've taken a more conservative view by target of 1.395. The chart also shows how easy it would have been to take long positions at 1.3376 regions. Sure back then it would have been a bit silly to expect EURUSD to hit 1.39... but price action has unfolded something totally different.

EURUSD - Renko Charts, Long Term

We could expect price to hover around 1.406 levels before any short positions can even be imagined.

Standard Parking Corp (STAN) - A stock worth keeping an eye on

I stumbled upon STAN (Standard Parking Corp) while doing some random look up on stocks. What's interesting to note is that this stock just broke out of a very long term basing pattern, ranging between 23.28 - 14. After price broke out, we are currently seeing a retest of 23.28, which should be a good place to buy STAN when it retests the upper range.

(STAN) - Renko Charts

Alternatively, if price fails to come back to 23.28, look to buy on dips. Also, place another buy order at 22.7/.76

This stock is a very.. and I mean very long term Buy and Hold. So pick decent units and dispose bits and pieces around 25, 30, 35 and 40.

AUDCHF - Trade Follow Up

This post is a follow up to the previous chart I posted about a potential trade opportunity that is arising out of AUDCHF. The reason for following up on this trade is because i'm currently short targeting the neckline of 0.81114. At the same time, I have pending orders, one at 0.81114 and the other at 0.80875 (which is the monthly pivot level).

I expect price to retest the neckline before reaching out to its Inverted H&S target at 0.84454. The chart below is updated and i've kept it quite simple. Nothing much has changed since the chart posted in the previous article.

AUDCHF - Renko Charts, Updated 19/04

The next chart is the same view but using the traditional candlesticks, to gain an idea of the price action. While the chart might look cluttered, i'ts very simple. We identify the inverted head and shoulders and we also notice the support/resistance areas on the chart.

AUDCHF - Price Action, 19/04

I would be eager to trade the leg up as AUDCHF longs have positive swaps along the way.

Some key notes to remember. Australia quarterly inflation is due on Wednesday, with an expectation of 0.8%, unchanged from the previous quarter. A reading below expectations could push Aussie pairs lower. However, i'd be keen to see how this will play out.

In case the inflation reading beats estimates then the trade idea could be invalidated. So instead of a retest of the neckline, price could just reverse and zoom out to its target. If inflation comes in line with expectations then I don't see any big moves playing out. Also note that China's HSBC Manufacturing PMI is due out 15 minutes after Aussie Inflation data which is an additional risk on the trade.

China's manufacturing PMI has been on the decline. A good example is the Jan 23rd PMI reading which was at its worst at 49.6 from an expected 50.6 and down from previous month's 50.5. AUDCHF dropped like a rock. However later data seem to have been well digested by the pair. So it will be interesting to see how the PMI reading will influence the AUDCHF pair.

Besides the above events on Wednesday, there is no more Aussie data left, which brings us to the month of May. The first week's big fundamental releases are likely to be the key drivers for AUDCHF. So I expect AUDCHF to complete its leg down by end of April and things should pick up by early May, especially from around the US NFP release.

Natural Gas - Trade Follow Up

Following up to the trade idea posted for Natural Gas here, today's DoE NG inventories came out smaller than expected in regards to the stockpiles. NG futures, initially dropped during the day and especially ahead of the report, only to surge more than 3%. If you recollect, a trade call was made to BUY Natural Gas. Also, I mentioned the resistance of 4.7, which is where price is at currently.

Expect a bit more choppy trade before NG futures price continue to surge higher. Traditionally, summer months (at least in Europe) are a time to stockpile on Natural Gas. However, the ongoing geo-political tensions between Ukraine and Russia could play spoil sport at least for the EU, which in turn could put pressure on global prices (read as US).

All said and done, it will only be a matter of time before Natural Gas trades in the upwards of $5 and more. Thus, if you have bought Natural Gas at around $4... hold!!

Sugar Futures - Heading back to $15

Sugar Futures - Renko Analysis

A perfect confluence of Elliott Waves, Median lines gives a target of $15.09 for sugar futures

AUDCHF - Trade Plan

Notes on chart.

To mention again:

• Pair is in a downtrend, but the occurrence of an inverted head and shoulders pattern could see a change of trend.
• A second bearish flag is currently drawn. Its not valid but if it holds price, then we can resume the downtrend.
• If price breaks out of the second assumed bearish flag, then the inverted head&shoulders would indeed validate a change of trend to bullish.

AUDCHF - Trade Plan, Renko Charts

Crude Oil paints a scary scenario

It wasn't long ago that media and the analysts spoke of $100 a barrel as a thing of the past. The crude oil renko chart paints a scary picture. Of course, given that renko is not time based, the target price of... hold your breathe 139.6

Crude Oil - Long Term Chart Pattern

What we have here is a classic rising or ascending triangle. Static/horizontal resistance at 109.19/110 and a rising support level. However to validate this trade, we'll need to see a break and possibly a retest of 110 before we can assume anything.

To make the analysis fair, the first minor upside risk comes in at 103.96. A break of this level could see some choppy price movements with bias both to the upside as well as downside.

That said, any bearish moves or correction to this uptrend should ideally be capped not any lower than 98.34. A break of this level could invalidate the long (and scary scenario) and we will have to revisit this trade analysis.

Also risks to the upside remain at 110 as we see a double top formation. A break below 78.57 gives a target of $47.40.

Yes, this chart gives some way off prices for Crude Oil, but its worth bearing this in mind.

P.S: I do envisage a test to 106.74 and a decline back to 98.34.

Citigroup - SELL

EPS might have beaten expectations, but if i'm right in understanding 'the pattern' that formed on the charts, then SELL SELL SELL and HOLD Citigroup. Stops at 52.... Sell at Market.. Look for atleast a 1:3 RR. Close first position at 1:3, and let the second position roll!

NZDCHF - Long Term Trade Plan

This trade plan, if it works out, could prove to be a very rewarding, but a lot of patience is required. Trade (longs) is based on a bullish fundamentals of NZDCHF. The long term targets are provided, with an eye on developing PA in the short term (within the current box highlighted).

Keep an eye out on 0.7625 for a trigger. Notes explained on chart.

NZDCHF - Long Term Trade Plan

GBPJPY - Trade Idea, 14/04

Pound Yen seems to be at a cross-roads with no clear direction at the moment. The chart with notes present a short and long opportunity. Patience is key!!

GBPJPY - Trade Idea, 14/04

EURNZD - Wave 5 in progress?

1.50 seems to be the target for EURNZD. I've been short from 1.607, so i'll likely book my profits around 1.507. Fingers crossed.

EURNZD - EW Count, Renko

AUDNZD - Two interesting short term trades

Assuming that the EW counts are right, current long AUDNZD positions can target 1.095. Once target is reached, short back down to 1.0657.

AUDNZD - Elliott Wave Counts

Nike Inc - Targeting 56.57?

If my EW counts are any good, then expect Nike to drop to 56.57 to complete wave 4 and finally targeting 87 for wave 5. Long way to go.

Nike Inc. Elliott Wave Count

Chevron Corp - Targeting 138.5

This analysis is based off the Fibonacci methods written by Constance Brown. One of the first detailed books on Fibs that I picked up to read. While Conny Brown explains her Fib method based off regular OHLC bars, I thought, why not to use that same strategy with Renko. After all, there are some subjective methods involved such as which points to pick while drawing fibs and the like and in most cases, the starting point (while measuring up wave) doesn't always have to start from the lowest low.

Chevron Corp (CVX) - Fibonacci Method

So here's Chevron Corp with the fib based method. Although i'm a bit late in posting this entry, notice how beautifully this trade worked out.

We see price dropping after topping at 127.19, only to reverse near the 114.12 - 113.11. 111.97 is the perfect trade entry with stops at 108.38. The target we're looking at is 138.5.

Another way to make use of Renko bars as it removes the noise and helps you to focus just on the task at hand.

Coca-Cola Renko Analysis 07/04

Coca-Cola (KO) Renko Analysis

Natural Gas - Renko Analysis 06/04

I've been hit by Natural Gas' wild fluctuations in the past, which kind of developed my obsession towards this commodity. Using Renko charts and plotting Elliott Waves, I believe that the corrective wave 4 seems to have been completed near 38.2% of Wave 3, circa 4.365. The target for wave 5 comes in at 6.05

Natural Gas - Renko Charts, Elliott Wave Analysis

Looking at the same using my Trend following method, notice firstly the 3 EMA's lining up for a cross over. The recent drop seems to be supported by 150 EMA. Also with the Stochastics technically crossing above 20 level and MACD moving above the 0-line its a buy.

Natural Gas - Candlestick Charts, Trend Following Method

Additional confirmation would be see at least 2 bullish bricks on the Renko which could validate this trade idea. The previous support level at 4.7 could act in as resistance and there could be some bounce or even a retest to 4.365, which is a risk that should be kept in mind.

Boeing - Renko Analysis - 06/04

Boeing - Renko Analysis (Elliott Waves)

Looks like Wave 3 has been completed after price topped 142.82. Look for a bearish renko pattern to target 115.57 - 109.82 levels. This will complete major and minor wave 4, and long towards 142.82, 158.7 (book partial profits)

IBM Renko Analysis - 06/04

IBM - Renko Charts EW Analysis

Walt Disney - Renko Analysis 06/04

Walt Disney (DIS) - Renko Charts, Elliott Wave Analysis

• Wait for confirmation of downtrend, monitor price levels of 75.24 & 70.51
• Sell on pullbacks, targeting 60.3 and 50.44
• Go long from 50.44, booking profits near 60.30, 70.51, 75.24
• Possible double top near 75.24

Trade idea invalidated or needs to be reconstructed if a new high is made. Hence confirmation of downtrend required near 75.24 and 70.51

Microsoft - Renko Analysis 05/04

Microsoft paints an interesting picture. After a prolonged consolidation, price made a false break out to the upside (validated by declining volume) and plunged lower breaking the lower channel of the consolidation. In this analysis, I use Elliott waves (made it as simple as possible) to figure out future price action. Based on my EW count, I think we have seen the termination of wave 3. I believe the EW counts to be valid based on the following rules:

• Wave 2 should not retrace 100% of wave 1 - Check
• Wave 3 typically reaches 1.618 of wave 1 - Check
• Wave 4 retraces to 38.2% of wave 3 - In progress
• Wave 5 yet to happen

What validates this scenario is the underlying pivot points (aka support/resistance levels). Even without EW count, we have a key support level coming in at 31.97. This coincides with 38.2% of wave 3, giving a target around 30.38. This level also forms the top of the channel. So logically, a retest of the top of this channel (which was previously resistance) could see price push higher.

Microsoft (MSFT) - Renko Charts with Elliott Wave Analysis

Wave 5 targets: Wave 5 usually moves the same length as wave 1. So if we go long from 30.38, or from 31.97, the targets would be (15.3 points) which is: 45.68 or 47.27

Targets:

• If wave 3 is indeed complete (at 41.06), short to 31.97/30.38
• Long from the above levels targeting 45.68 - 47.27 (with partial profit booking at 41.06)

Staples - Renko Analysis 05/04

Staples - Renko Analysis

Macerich - Renko Analysis 05/04

MAC - Renko Analysis