Natural Gas - June Update

This is an update to my previous post here.

Natural Gas June Update

Price is currently trading at 4.6 after hitting resistance at 4.82. We see a small correction which should be completed soon. During the correction, the retracement reversed at 4.465 which is a minor resistance turned support level. For now, the short term targets come in at 51.190.

Natural Gas - Trade Follow Up

Following up to the trade idea posted for Natural Gas here, today's DoE NG inventories came out smaller than expected in regards to the stockpiles. NG futures, initially dropped during the day and especially ahead of the report, only to surge more than 3%. If you recollect, a trade call was made to BUY Natural Gas. Also, I mentioned the resistance of 4.7, which is where price is at currently.

Expect a bit more choppy trade before NG futures price continue to surge higher. Traditionally, summer months (at least in Europe) are a time to stockpile on Natural Gas. However, the ongoing geo-political tensions between Ukraine and Russia could play spoil sport at least for the EU, which in turn could put pressure on global prices (read as US).

All said and done, it will only be a matter of time before Natural Gas trades in the upwards of $5 and more. Thus, if you have bought Natural Gas at around $4... hold!!

Natural Gas - Renko Analysis 06/04

I've been hit by Natural Gas' wild fluctuations in the past, which kind of developed my obsession towards this commodity. Using Renko charts and plotting Elliott Waves, I believe that the corrective wave 4 seems to have been completed near 38.2% of Wave 3, circa 4.365. The target for wave 5 comes in at 6.05

Natural Gas - Renko Charts, Elliott Wave Analysis

Looking at the same using my Trend following method, notice firstly the 3 EMA's lining up for a cross over. The recent drop seems to be supported by 150 EMA. Also with the Stochastics technically crossing above 20 level and MACD moving above the 0-line its a buy.

Natural Gas - Candlestick Charts, Trend Following Method

Additional confirmation would be see at least 2 bullish bricks on the Renko which could validate this trade idea. The previous support level at 4.7 could act in as resistance and there could be some bounce or even a retest to 4.365, which is a risk that should be kept in mind.