EURUSD... ECB has to fight a bullish Euro

The EURUSD Renko chart here paints the picture. Lot of things on chart, so let me explain.

EURUSD - Bigger Picture

First there was an ascending triangle (marked in pink) which had a target to 1.3926 which was duly achieved.

Within the journey of this ascending triangle, there was a secondary ascending triangle formed (marked in Black) which targets 1.4176.

However, after hitting the first ascending triangle's target, price formed a small double top at 1.3926 giving a downside target to 1.3526. The neckline of this double top comes at 1.3726.

Possible Scenarios:

• With tomorrow's ECB, we could expect a straight drop to 1.3562
• A retracement to the neckline at 1.3726 is possible, but weak because 1.3651 or 1.3676 could come in as resistance (150% distance of first ascending triangle)
• If a bullish renko is formed at that level, then a short after a bearish renko being printed can see price travel down to the final target of 1.3526.

Once the base is formed at 1.3526, we could see a resurgent rally and validates the secondary ascending triangle (marked by the rising black trendline). But for a safe entry for this kind of set up, we will have to wait for a breakout above 1.3776.

Overall, the bigger target for EURUSD comes in at 1.4176 and within the larger scope of things, EURUSD is quite bullish.

Edit:

The risk to EURUSD is that if the Double top does reach the target, there isn't any considerable bias that support will be found with the only exception of a reversal taking place previously.

Therefore, long positions would be better off either to wait for a break of 1.3776 or wait for price to rally above 1.3726 in order to confirm the support level at 1.3526