Natural Gas - June Update

This is an update to my previous post here.

Natural Gas June Update

Price is currently trading at 4.6 after hitting resistance at 4.82. We see a small correction which should be completed soon. During the correction, the retracement reversed at 4.465 which is a minor resistance turned support level. For now, the short term targets come in at 51.190.

Sugar Futures - Adding to shorts

There seems to be a bit of bullish sentiment prevailing in the markets in regards to sugar, largely attributed to a weaker than expected output from Brazil. More here. Previous analysis calling for $15 here.

Regardless of this bullish development, I still think that Sugar is poised to drop lower. So I have a new pending order at 16.77, targeting 15.10 (rounded off).

Sugar Futures Update, 24/04/14

AMD - Symmetrical Triangle Break out Renko

AMD - Renko Charts 22/04/14

Came across this pattern with the Marketinout stock screener.

EURUSD - Its not over until the fat lady sings

And regardless of what other's say, don't expect to short Euro anytime soon... unless of course 1.395 is taken out. And a bit above that as well. The EURUSD renko chart shows a simplistic view of the price action. A descending triangle breakout gives us a target towards 1.4 region. I've taken a more conservative view by target of 1.395. The chart also shows how easy it would have been to take long positions at 1.3376 regions. Sure back then it would have been a bit silly to expect EURUSD to hit 1.39... but price action has unfolded something totally different.

EURUSD - Renko Charts, Long Term

We could expect price to hover around 1.406 levels before any short positions can even be imagined.

Standard Parking Corp (STAN) - A stock worth keeping an eye on

I stumbled upon STAN (Standard Parking Corp) while doing some random look up on stocks. What's interesting to note is that this stock just broke out of a very long term basing pattern, ranging between 23.28 - 14. After price broke out, we are currently seeing a retest of 23.28, which should be a good place to buy STAN when it retests the upper range.

(STAN) - Renko Charts

Alternatively, if price fails to come back to 23.28, look to buy on dips. Also, place another buy order at 22.7/.76

This stock is a very.. and I mean very long term Buy and Hold. So pick decent units and dispose bits and pieces around 25, 30, 35 and 40.

AUDCHF - Trade Follow Up

This post is a follow up to the previous chart I posted about a potential trade opportunity that is arising out of AUDCHF. The reason for following up on this trade is because i'm currently short targeting the neckline of 0.81114. At the same time, I have pending orders, one at 0.81114 and the other at 0.80875 (which is the monthly pivot level).

I expect price to retest the neckline before reaching out to its Inverted H&S target at 0.84454. The chart below is updated and i've kept it quite simple. Nothing much has changed since the chart posted in the previous article.

AUDCHF - Renko Charts, Updated 19/04

The next chart is the same view but using the traditional candlesticks, to gain an idea of the price action. While the chart might look cluttered, i'ts very simple. We identify the inverted head and shoulders and we also notice the support/resistance areas on the chart.

AUDCHF - Price Action, 19/04

I would be eager to trade the leg up as AUDCHF longs have positive swaps along the way.

Some key notes to remember. Australia quarterly inflation is due on Wednesday, with an expectation of 0.8%, unchanged from the previous quarter. A reading below expectations could push Aussie pairs lower. However, i'd be keen to see how this will play out.

In case the inflation reading beats estimates then the trade idea could be invalidated. So instead of a retest of the neckline, price could just reverse and zoom out to its target. If inflation comes in line with expectations then I don't see any big moves playing out. Also note that China's HSBC Manufacturing PMI is due out 15 minutes after Aussie Inflation data which is an additional risk on the trade.

China's manufacturing PMI has been on the decline. A good example is the Jan 23rd PMI reading which was at its worst at 49.6 from an expected 50.6 and down from previous month's 50.5. AUDCHF dropped like a rock. However later data seem to have been well digested by the pair. So it will be interesting to see how the PMI reading will influence the AUDCHF pair.

Besides the above events on Wednesday, there is no more Aussie data left, which brings us to the month of May. The first week's big fundamental releases are likely to be the key drivers for AUDCHF. So I expect AUDCHF to complete its leg down by end of April and things should pick up by early May, especially from around the US NFP release.

Sugar Futures - Heading back to $15

Sugar Futures - Renko Analysis

A perfect confluence of Elliott Waves, Median lines gives a target of $15.09 for sugar futures

NZDCHF - Long Term Trade Plan

This trade plan, if it works out, could prove to be a very rewarding, but a lot of patience is required. Trade (longs) is based on a bullish fundamentals of NZDCHF. The long term targets are provided, with an eye on developing PA in the short term (within the current box highlighted).

Keep an eye out on 0.7625 for a trigger. Notes explained on chart.

NZDCHF - Long Term Trade Plan

GBPJPY - Trade Idea, 14/04

Pound Yen seems to be at a cross-roads with no clear direction at the moment. The chart with notes present a short and long opportunity. Patience is key!!

GBPJPY - Trade Idea, 14/04

EURNZD - Wave 5 in progress?

1.50 seems to be the target for EURNZD. I've been short from 1.607, so i'll likely book my profits around 1.507. Fingers crossed.

EURNZD - EW Count, Renko

AUDNZD - Two interesting short term trades

Assuming that the EW counts are right, current long AUDNZD positions can target 1.095. Once target is reached, short back down to 1.0657.

AUDNZD - Elliott Wave Counts

Nike Inc - Targeting 56.57?

If my EW counts are any good, then expect Nike to drop to 56.57 to complete wave 4 and finally targeting 87 for wave 5. Long way to go.

Nike Inc. Elliott Wave Count

Chevron Corp - Targeting 138.5

This analysis is based off the Fibonacci methods written by Constance Brown. One of the first detailed books on Fibs that I picked up to read. While Conny Brown explains her Fib method based off regular OHLC bars, I thought, why not to use that same strategy with Renko. After all, there are some subjective methods involved such as which points to pick while drawing fibs and the like and in most cases, the starting point (while measuring up wave) doesn't always have to start from the lowest low.

Chevron Corp (CVX) - Fibonacci Method

So here's Chevron Corp with the fib based method. Although i'm a bit late in posting this entry, notice how beautifully this trade worked out.

We see price dropping after topping at 127.19, only to reverse near the 114.12 - 113.11. 111.97 is the perfect trade entry with stops at 108.38. The target we're looking at is 138.5.

Another way to make use of Renko bars as it removes the noise and helps you to focus just on the task at hand.