EURUSD - Buy

Follow up to an old analysis here.

Buy EURUSD, targeting 1.3526 and sell from 1.3526

Updates on trades taken in July

GBPJPY Long: Trade in play.

GBPJPY Short: Trade in play. Price currently at 172.501, and looks all set to hit 172.288 target level, moving stops to BE. New long positions from here will add more strength to the previous long trade idea posted.

NZDUSD Short: Trade closed. Entry was at 0.8698 with a profit of 208 Pips and this was a few hours before the RBNZ interest rate hike release.

NZDUSD - Short Trade Result

There was also a short on NZDJPY targeting 86.9 selling at 88.4, this gave a very decent 1.5 Pips (or about 150 pips).

EURCAD Short: Trade waiting to be triggered.

EURUSD: Price has started its rally so waiting for the short orders to be triggered.

GBPAUD: Trade is continuing to play out. Will make a fresh update on this.

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EURUSD - Potential Short Position

EURUSD, Renko charts show a possible downtrend in play, with the likelihood of a retracement, giving traders the chance to sell the rallies. There seems to be a good price level of 1.3526 and 1.3576 to short from, targeting 1.3376 with stops for both orders coming in at 1.3676.

The chart below shows the trade set up for EURUSD Renko charts.

EURUSD - Renko Charts Analysis, 25/07

The same chart when viewed with the regular candlesticks is shown below.

EURUSD - Daily Charts, Candlesticks

Notice how price is trading below the 200EMA. Stochastics are in oversold levels, pointing to a possible correction to the upside. The trend line has been broken and there was a clear re-test of the broken trend line as well, confirming the bias to the downside.

EURUSD Renko Analysis - Alternate View (Double Bottom Scenario)

Not much of time to publish charts, but from the previous post here, an alternative view would be that of a break of the second ascending triangle. If 1.3526 gives way, the next support comes in at 1.3376.

This sets the tone for a double bottom (if it holds) which gives further upside target to 1.44/1.45

For now, watching!!!

EURAUD: Moving targets to the H&S level at 1.458 if there is a bullish retracement to the downtrend after a tap of this level.

EURUSD... ECB has to fight a bullish Euro

The EURUSD Renko chart here paints the picture. Lot of things on chart, so let me explain.

EURUSD - Bigger Picture

First there was an ascending triangle (marked in pink) which had a target to 1.3926 which was duly achieved.

Within the journey of this ascending triangle, there was a secondary ascending triangle formed (marked in Black) which targets 1.4176.

However, after hitting the first ascending triangle's target, price formed a small double top at 1.3926 giving a downside target to 1.3526. The neckline of this double top comes at 1.3726.

Possible Scenarios:

• With tomorrow's ECB, we could expect a straight drop to 1.3562
• A retracement to the neckline at 1.3726 is possible, but weak because 1.3651 or 1.3676 could come in as resistance (150% distance of first ascending triangle)
• If a bullish renko is formed at that level, then a short after a bearish renko being printed can see price travel down to the final target of 1.3526.

Once the base is formed at 1.3526, we could see a resurgent rally and validates the secondary ascending triangle (marked by the rising black trendline). But for a safe entry for this kind of set up, we will have to wait for a breakout above 1.3776.

Overall, the bigger target for EURUSD comes in at 1.4176 and within the larger scope of things, EURUSD is quite bullish.

Edit:

The risk to EURUSD is that if the Double top does reach the target, there isn't any considerable bias that support will be found with the only exception of a reversal taking place previously.

Therefore, long positions would be better off either to wait for a break of 1.3776 or wait for price to rally above 1.3726 in order to confirm the support level at 1.3526

EURUSD - Hitching a ride

In the previous article, I mentioned about EURUSD targeting 1.40. In this analysis, we'll see how we could hitch a ride on this short journey.

Keeping the analysis as is and taking cues from the triangle break out, we notice a bit of retracement taking place. The most likely dip could terminate near 1.3776, which incidentally was a past resistance level. This was tested just once more recently and is likely to be tested again, thus providing a good entry.

EURUSD - Renko Charts, Trade Plan

The validation for longs also comes from the trendline confluence with 1.3776 level. So the stops would come in at one and half bricks below at 1.3651. The target of course would be 1.40 and 1.4082.

So taking two positions with the first one closing at 1.4 and the second position moved to BE and targeting 1.4082 from 1.3776 should play out fairly well.

EURUSD - Its not over until the fat lady sings

And regardless of what other's say, don't expect to short Euro anytime soon... unless of course 1.395 is taken out. And a bit above that as well. The EURUSD renko chart shows a simplistic view of the price action. A descending triangle breakout gives us a target towards 1.4 region. I've taken a more conservative view by target of 1.395. The chart also shows how easy it would have been to take long positions at 1.3376 regions. Sure back then it would have been a bit silly to expect EURUSD to hit 1.39... but price action has unfolded something totally different.

EURUSD - Renko Charts, Long Term

We could expect price to hover around 1.406 levels before any short positions can even be imagined.