Sugar Futures - Adding to shorts

There seems to be a bit of bullish sentiment prevailing in the markets in regards to sugar, largely attributed to a weaker than expected output from Brazil. More here. Previous analysis calling for $15 here.

Regardless of this bullish development, I still think that Sugar is poised to drop lower. So I have a new pending order at 16.77, targeting 15.10 (rounded off).

Sugar Futures Update, 24/04/14

Sugar Futures - Heading back to $15

Sugar Futures - Renko Analysis

A perfect confluence of Elliott Waves, Median lines gives a target of $15.09 for sugar futures

EURNZD - Wave 5 in progress?

1.50 seems to be the target for EURNZD. I've been short from 1.607, so i'll likely book my profits around 1.507. Fingers crossed.

EURNZD - EW Count, Renko

AUDNZD - Two interesting short term trades

Assuming that the EW counts are right, current long AUDNZD positions can target 1.095. Once target is reached, short back down to 1.0657.

AUDNZD - Elliott Wave Counts

Nike Inc - Targeting 56.57?

If my EW counts are any good, then expect Nike to drop to 56.57 to complete wave 4 and finally targeting 87 for wave 5. Long way to go.

Nike Inc. Elliott Wave Count

Natural Gas - Renko Analysis 06/04

I've been hit by Natural Gas' wild fluctuations in the past, which kind of developed my obsession towards this commodity. Using Renko charts and plotting Elliott Waves, I believe that the corrective wave 4 seems to have been completed near 38.2% of Wave 3, circa 4.365. The target for wave 5 comes in at 6.05

Natural Gas - Renko Charts, Elliott Wave Analysis

Looking at the same using my Trend following method, notice firstly the 3 EMA's lining up for a cross over. The recent drop seems to be supported by 150 EMA. Also with the Stochastics technically crossing above 20 level and MACD moving above the 0-line its a buy.

Natural Gas - Candlestick Charts, Trend Following Method

Additional confirmation would be see at least 2 bullish bricks on the Renko which could validate this trade idea. The previous support level at 4.7 could act in as resistance and there could be some bounce or even a retest to 4.365, which is a risk that should be kept in mind.

Boeing - Renko Analysis - 06/04

Boeing - Renko Analysis (Elliott Waves)

Looks like Wave 3 has been completed after price topped 142.82. Look for a bearish renko pattern to target 115.57 - 109.82 levels. This will complete major and minor wave 4, and long towards 142.82, 158.7 (book partial profits)

IBM Renko Analysis - 06/04

IBM - Renko Charts EW Analysis

Walt Disney - Renko Analysis 06/04

Walt Disney (DIS) - Renko Charts, Elliott Wave Analysis

• Wait for confirmation of downtrend, monitor price levels of 75.24 & 70.51
• Sell on pullbacks, targeting 60.3 and 50.44
• Go long from 50.44, booking profits near 60.30, 70.51, 75.24
• Possible double top near 75.24

Trade idea invalidated or needs to be reconstructed if a new high is made. Hence confirmation of downtrend required near 75.24 and 70.51

Microsoft - Renko Analysis 05/04

Microsoft paints an interesting picture. After a prolonged consolidation, price made a false break out to the upside (validated by declining volume) and plunged lower breaking the lower channel of the consolidation. In this analysis, I use Elliott waves (made it as simple as possible) to figure out future price action. Based on my EW count, I think we have seen the termination of wave 3. I believe the EW counts to be valid based on the following rules:

• Wave 2 should not retrace 100% of wave 1 - Check
• Wave 3 typically reaches 1.618 of wave 1 - Check
• Wave 4 retraces to 38.2% of wave 3 - In progress
• Wave 5 yet to happen

What validates this scenario is the underlying pivot points (aka support/resistance levels). Even without EW count, we have a key support level coming in at 31.97. This coincides with 38.2% of wave 3, giving a target around 30.38. This level also forms the top of the channel. So logically, a retest of the top of this channel (which was previously resistance) could see price push higher.

Microsoft (MSFT) - Renko Charts with Elliott Wave Analysis

Wave 5 targets: Wave 5 usually moves the same length as wave 1. So if we go long from 30.38, or from 31.97, the targets would be (15.3 points) which is: 45.68 or 47.27

Targets:

• If wave 3 is indeed complete (at 41.06), short to 31.97/30.38
• Long from the above levels targeting 45.68 - 47.27 (with partial profit booking at 41.06)